In-depth knowledge is the best starting point for solution-oriented dialogue. Here, the Berlin Demography Forum will regularly highlight new publications on demographic issues. In this way, interested parties will be given the opportunity to obtain further information.
Patrick J. Collins, Huy D. Lam, and Josh Stampfli: Longevity Risk and Retirement Income Planning
The past 50 years have seen an abundance of research on retirement planning and longevity risk. Reviewed here is the academic side of the research and its varied viewpoints and nuances. The evolution of retirement risk models, retirement portfolio problems and solutions, and annuities are some of the many topics covered.
Axel Börsch-Supan et al.: Savings in Times of Demographic Change -Lessons from the German Experience
The German retirement reforms caused an adjustment of pension schemes. Increasing shares of the population started to engage in private pension schemes in order to outweigh decreasing state pensions: The number of households without supplementary pensions decreased from 73% in 2003 to 39% in 2013. Nevertheless, low income and low education households need to be better informed about the necessity of supplementary pensions caused by increased live expectancy.
Eckart Bomsdorf and Jörg Winkelhausen: Demographic Change Continues Uninterrupted – Despite Higher Immigration: Population Projection for Germany to 2060 Based on the 2011 Census
The paper projects the German population until 2060 on the basis of the 2011 census. The model assumptions reach from low to high fertility, net migration and life expectancy increase. The paper shows that a continuous high net migration can counteract the population shrinking, but not the population aging.
Dr. Martin Bujard (2015): Consequences of Enduring Low Fertility – A German Case Study
Compared to all other countries in the world, Germany has been a “low-fertility country” for a longer period: the total fertility rate has been below 1.5 for four decades. Being the first to experience this development, a case study of Germany allows analysing the consequences of an enduring birth decline. In Germany, low fertility is also an increasingly big issue in politics as well as science, especially due to its extensive consequences on several policy fields that already become visible. However, the assessment of the consequences differs tremendously when it comes either to its intensity or to the question whether ageing or rather population decline is the more severe problem. Differentiated by these two processes, this article combines demographic analysis with the assessment of the consequences for different policy fields such as pensions, health, the economy, the labour market, culture, the EU, international relations and the party system.
The 2015 Ageing Report by the EU Commission
The European Commission has released “The 2015 Ageing Report: Economic and budgetary projections for the 28 EU Member States (2013-2060)”, analysing the economic and budgetary impact of an ageing population over the long-term.
Every age counts – German government strategy on demography
In the coming decades demographicdevelopments will deeply change the face of Germany. The central question isnot if something will change, but what we will make of it. What does demographic developments mean for the individual as well as for the society as a whole?
Dr. Jürgen Dorbritz: Family diversity with low actual and desired fertility
Germany is a low-fertility country with a rapidly ageing population, and will remain so for the foreseeable future. There are several reasons for this trend. Germany is among the countries with the highest rates of childlessness in the world, and childlessness has become widely accepted. This is illustrated by changes in living arrangements.
Prof. Michaela Kreyenfeld: Will there be a trend reversal of birth rates in Germany?
Like in many other European countries, the number of children per woman in Germany is continuously declining. Whereas western-German women born in 1940gave birth to 2 children, the women born in 1965 only gave birth to 1,5 children on average.[in German only]
Prof. Tilman Mayer: Demography Politics
Demography politics constitutes a new policy field, which serves to find answers to the demographic challenges on different levels. [in German only]
Prof. Norbert Schneider: Population Developments and Population Policies
Currently, there are 7 billion people living on planet earth. The total global population is annually increasing by about 80 million people, which nearly equaly the number of inhabitants of Germany. In the coming decades, the world population will grow further, but the rate of growth will significantly decline. [in German only]
Prof. Joerg Rocholl: Demographic Change and the Role of Universities
Globally, we are facing substantial demographic changes. However, the individual countries will be affected in different ways: whereas the total global population will grow, the populations of Germany and other developed countries will broadly decline. [in German only]
Demography Report 2011
Demographic changes will increasingly affect the social and economic development in Germany in the next decades. Other industrialised nations also face low fertility rates, an increased life expectancy and consequently the ageing of society – but Germany is concerned in a major way.[in German only]
Germany – Family Report 2010: Performance, effects, trends
Families remain stable, even in economically troublesome times, and provide a sense of security. Our family policy contributes towards this in a significant way. These are two of the central findings of the Family Report 2010. [in German only]
OECD report: Doing better for families
This report offers a comparative summary of a wide variety of family policy issues in the 34 OECD member countries. Issues range from changing family structures, trends in birth rates and working incentives for parents, to the different approaches towards family support in the OECD countries.
We will soon be seven billion
The countdown for the birth of the earth’s seven billionth inhabitant has begun. There are 258 births per minute worldwide. Trend indicates world population will continue to grow. Just twelve years after the six billion mark was reached, the United Nations has predicted that the seven billionth new addition to the human race will be born on October 31, 2011. His or her birth will be a milestone in world history but also poses a challenge for our planet. Never before has the earth been home to so many people at once. It also raises some existential questions. What lies in store for our Billion Child, what kind of conditions will he/she grow up in?
Allianz Demographic Pulse July 2011: One-child policy in China – success story or boomerang?
After the publication of the most recent census findings in the People’s Republic of China, the question of pursuing the one-child policy that has already been relaxed somewhat reemerges. While politicians continue to insist on it, critics point to the increasingly ageing population, asking whether the birth rate would really increase in a sustainable fashion, if the one-child policy were to be abandoned.
Some economic consequences of global ageing: a discussion note for the World Bank
This discussion note describes the consequences of population aging world-wide, particularly for low- and middle-income countries, pointing to some interesting facts. For instance, the authors argue that declines in fertility have a more significant impact on population aging than increases in longevity. Besides, this publication examines the effect of aging on capital intensity, the need to include education in assessments of inter-generational equity, as well as the role of long-term care insurance programs.